IKV Chairperson Ayhan Zeytinoğlu commented that the agreement reached between US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on customs tariffs was a positive development for global trade and the trading partners of both sides.

Chairperson Zeytinoğlu said the following:

“With the deadline of 1 August fast approaching, the US and the EU reached an agreement on customs tariffs. Compared to the 30% tariff that Trump said he would impose on EU countries when he took office, the 15% tariff that will now be applied is quite encouraging. However, considering that approximately 10 years ago, the EU and the US were negotiating a comprehensive trade and investment partnership agreement, and that if the negotiations had been successful, a zero tariff would have been applied, a 15% tariff still seems quite high. However, from the perspective of Trump's objectives of generating revenue from tariffs, reducing the budget deficit, and attracting investment to the US, the application of tariffs on products from the EU was inevitable.”

Chairperson Zeytinoğlu emphasised that this agreement will significantly affect world trade, given that the EU and the US are the two leading players in world trade, and continued:

“In 2024, trade in goods between the EU and the US reached 976 billion dollars. The US imported 606 billion dollars’ worth of products from the EU, while the EU imported 370 billion dollars’ worth of products from the US. There was a trade surplus in favour of the EU. With this agreement, Trump gained the opportunity to shift the trade balance in his favour. Although this agreement was declared a victory by both sides, it means a decline in competitiveness and US sales, especially for German car manufacturers. One of Trump's major complaints was that Europeans were not buying American cars. Under the agreement, the EU will also reduce tariffs on American cars. However, considering that many American cars are assembled outside the US, tariffs will lead to additional costs. Certain aircraft parts, agricultural products, and some chemicals were classified as strategic and exempt from tariffs. According to calculations, the agreement could result in a 0.5% decrease in GDP for the EU. Tariffs will undoubtedly be reflected in prices and negatively impact consumers. The agreement must be approved by all 27 EU member states. During this process, member states may have different priorities depending on their exports to the US. However, under current conditions, it is still a good agreement.”

Trump Prioritises Attracting Investment to the US
Chairperson Zeytinoğlu said that an important aspect of the agreement was attracting investment from the EU to the US, stating:

Trump also said that the EU would increase its investments in the US by 600 billion dollars and purchase 750 billion dollars’ worth of energy sources such as LNG and oil. Although this would be a step towards further reducing the EU's dependence on Russia, it conflicts with the goals of the European Green Deal. According to the latest data released by the European Commission, in the first quarter of 2025, EU energy markets passed important thresholds in terms of both supply security and source diversification. While solar energy production set a new record, dependence on Russian gas saw a historic decline. In this regard, it is important to note that purchasing energy from the US does not contradict the goal of accelerating the transition to renewable energy.

Türkiye is Not Targeted by US Tariff Hikes
Finally, Chairperson Zeytinoğlu touched upon the situation in Türkiye and concluded his remarks as follows:

“As Türkiye, the EU’s position as a global trade player is of great interest to us. The EU may take certain countermeasures against the US and resort to trade protection measures. Looking at the data for the last six months, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, the US and Spain were the top five countries to which Türkiye exported in the January-June period. Most of these are EU member states. Access to the EU market is of strategic importance for our export targets. Exports increased by 4.1% compared to the same period last year, reaching 131.44 billion dollars, while imports increased by 7.2%, reaching 180.869 billion dollars.

The automotive sector is critical to our trade with the EU. The automotive sector achieved exports worth 19.987 billion dollars in the January-June period, representing a 13% increase and one of the strongest performances in recent years.  In June, exports in the sector rose by 30% to 3.408 billion dollars, the highest export value ever recorded for the month of June. This value accounted for 16.6% of Türkiye's total exports in June. These figures are very important. In June, exports to Germany, the largest market for automotive exports, increased by 74% to 556 million dollars. Following Germany were France (up 36% to 429 million dollars) and the United Kingdom (up 2% to 330 million dollars). EU countries accounted for 74.2% of automotive exports in June. Exports to the EU increased by 42% to 2.527 billion dollars. Developments such as the EU importing more vehicles from the US than before require close monitoring. Digital and green transformations in the EU market and how trade relations with the US will be shaped by the latest agreement are important for Türkiye-EU relations. Under these conditions, updating the Türkiye-EU Customs Union, removing non-tariff barriers in Türkiye-EU trade, and liberalising areas such as trade in services and e-commerce will also contribute to the EU's competitiveness.