IKV organised a panel entitled “Global Role of the US and Its Relations with the EU: Is It a Crisis or a Reconstruction?” on 19 July 2018. The moderator of the panel was IKV Vice Chairman Prof. Halûk Kabaalioğlu and the panelists were Director of the TEPAV Center for Multilateral Trade Studies and Retired Ambassador Bozkurt Aran, WTO Chair Holder and İstanbul Bilgi University Lecturer Dr. Pınar Artıran, TEPAV Area Studies Program Consultant Dr. Nihat Ali Özcan and İstinye University Lecturer Assoc. Prof. Aylin Ünver Noi.

IKV Chairman Ayhan Zeytinoğlu who delivered the opening speech of the panel touched upon the global role of the US and its relations with the EU along with the developments in the global liberal system. After having mentioned that IKV has been closely following the relations between Turkey and the EU since 1965, Ayhan Zeytinoğlu stated that two important issues of modernisation of the Customs Union and visa liberalisation process have the potential of bringing acceleration to the stagnant relations between the parties. Accentuating that the modernisation of the Customs Union will be a “win-win” situation for both sides and it would strengthen the bilateral ties, Zeytinoğlu stated that Turkey and the EU are important partners especially in trade. After having expressed that the Customs Union needs to be modernised due to its narrow scope and some structural problems, IKV Chairman mentioned the visa liberalisation process as the second important issue. Ayhan Zeytinoğlu stated that it was rather difficult to understand the process as visas were removed for Georgia and Ukraine whilst it continues to create a burden for Turkish citizens both financially and psychologically.

Having referred to Turkey’s switch to the Presidential System after the 24 June elections and the merge of the Ministry for EU Affairs to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, IKV Chairman Zeytinoğlu emphasised that this should not overshadow Turkey’s full membership objective to the EU. Afterwards, Ayhan Zeytinoğlu underlined the rising concerns stemming from countermeasures taken by many countries against the additional customs duties imposed by President of the US Donald Trump whereas this situation will have the possibility to create new opportunities, too. IKV Chairman Zeytinoğlu mentioned that the latest developments occurred in a period of the US passing from the rule-maker to the rule-taker position could be a sign of change of guard. Lastly, Ayhan Zeytinoğlu drew attention to the differences of opinion that emerged within the NATO. In the wake of the opening speech of IKV Chairman, the panel’s moderator Prof. Halûk Kabaalioğlu started his words by mentioning that the 45^th US President Donald Trump reversed almost all decisions taken by his predecessor Barack Obama. Within this scope, Kabaalioğlu stated that NAFTA was brought to renegotiation table, the US was removed from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations with the EU were suspended. Then Prof. Halûk Kabaalioğlu gave the floor to the first panelist Bozkurt Aran.

Director of the TEPAV Center for Multilateral Trade Studies and Retired Ambassador Bozkurt Aran started his speech by emphasising that what could happen in the future in such a changing world order needs to be seen with the help of eluding today's mindscapes. According to Bozkurt Aran, although actually in this period the world's welfare has increased more than ever before and extreme poverty is decreasing, there has been a non-conformism revealed itself in both the 2008 international financial crisis and accelerated populist discourses gained in recent years. This situation was described by President of the US Intelligence Agency as “the end of the rule-based order established after the Second World War” and by President of the EU Council Donald Tusk as “changing the world’s architecture in front of our eyes”. After having underlined the statements that various international actors such as China and Russia will strengthen in the period of weakening the US’ hegemony, Retired Ambassador predicated that the process for the US is with full of uncertainties and for the EU it is a return to internal matters. Bozkurt Aran who interpreted the change in global architecture as a “revolt against the neoliberal system” noted that the 2008 international financial crisis accelerated populism, the central parties were dispersed and global value chains get increasing reactions from blue-collar workers. It was also indicated that the US’ push the limits of rule-based system, the Washington administration’s efforts to move the system from multilateralism to bilateral relations and the blockage of the US on the functioning of the WTO's Appellate Body are among the criticised issues. At the end of his speech, Retired Ambassador Bozkurt Aran touched upon the NATO Brussels Summit took place on 11-12 July and underlined that the EU has been searching for alternatives such as PESCO in case of any possible fragmentation in NATO.

The second speaker of the panel WTO Chair Holder and Istanbul Bilgi University Lecturer Dr. Pınar Artıran shared important information regarding the investigations launched by the US President Donald Trump in four different areas of solar panels and wide-body washing machines, automotive, steel and aluminium and technology/ intellectual property. After having enounced that the Washington administration has blocked the WTO Appellate Body's appointments and limited the number of seven members to four, Pınar Artıran also mentioned the recently signed EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement that will create opportunities for data exchange. This new generation agreement was stated to be likely to serve as a model regarding the data exchange that was one of the turbulent subjects in the TTIP negotiations between the EU and the US. Moreover, Pınar Artıran remarked that the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement’s annex has a special condition for Andorra and San Mario with which the EU has the Customs Union apart from Turkey for which there is no similar condition.

In the wake of the emphasis that the real source of the US’ discomfort is China’s technological refreshment, Artıran touched upon the Section 301 Investigation of the US Trade Representative against China related to technology transfer and intellectual property. Additively, Artıran shared information that 4.3 billion euro fine imposed by the EU to the US company Google on 18 July is the biggest fine in the history of competition law. Referring to the investigations by the US, it is mentioned that the work of arbitrators will be unpredictable and difficult since the 21^st Article of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) related to national security applied by the Trump administration has had only one application in the case of Russia and Ukraine. After having mentioned that eight countries have applied to the WTO following the Trump administration decisions to levy additional customs duties, Pınar Artıran shared the information that Washington administration brought an action against the EU, China, Canada, Mexico and Turkey on 16 July. Within this scope, the WTO Chair Holder Artıran touched on an important matter by expressing that Turkey has the possibility of losing this case since duties have begun to be implemented without waiting for a response from the WTO after having presented the list of US products on which duties are requested to be levied.

The third speaker of the panel TEPAV Area Studies Program Consultant Dr. Nihat Ali Özcan discussed the issue from the security dimension. After having mentioned that intelligence officers who are also specialist in economics are trained especially in the EU and the US, Nihat Ali Özcan stated that China has brought through and increased its production capacity in recent years thanks to technological knowledge gained from these specialists. Moreover, taking into account that the centre of gravity of economy and trade is gradually shifting towards Asia-Pacific, Özcan pointed out that the reason the US President requested NATO member states to increase their defence expenditure stems from the fact that the EU does not support the US against China. While China has substantially increased its defence expenditure in the last decade, it was pointed out that Germany has decreased its defence expenditure by Dr. Nihat Ali Özcan. At the end of his speech, Özcan noted that the US can see Russia as a global ally in the long run.

The last panelist of the event was İstinye University Lecturer Assoc. Prof. Aylin Ünver Noi began her speech by expressing that the Transatlantic relations was created on the dimension of norms 70 years ago and the first crack of the process which began with the Marshall Plan was not just the current developments. The reason that there have been problems in the EU-US relations is that the two powers use different instruments as being the EU is soft power EU and the US is hard power. According to Aylin Ünver Noi, although the EU as an integration model and peace project was able to manage the integration of the eastern European countries to the EU after their membership with the help of soft power instead of military power, the latest developments in today’s world have revealed the fact that only soft power cannot be enough. Assoc. Prof. Noi expressed that the emergence of the needs for defence organisations such as PESCO is normal within this context. Continuing to mention the differences between the EU and the US, Noi stated that whereas the reforms in the EU are implemented slowly and gradually, the process is much faster in the US. Assoc. Prof. Aylin Ünver Noi ended her speech by emphasising that China has adopted an illiberal capitalist approach in which its economic development model has not brought democratisation with a totally different understanding compared to the EU and the US. After the end of the panel, there was Q&A session and distribution of the IKV publications to the participants.