IKV organised a meeting titled “The Future of the Customs Union, Free Trade Agreements and the ‘Made in EU’ Criterion on the 30th Anniversary of the Customs Union Decision” on 9 March 2026, with the participation of Minister of Trade Prof. Ömer Bolat.

The opening speech of the meeting was delivered by IKV Chairperson Ayhan Zeytinoğlu. Chairperson Zeytinoğlu stated that on the 30th anniversary of the Türkiye–EU Customs Union, the EU continues to be Türkiye’s most important export market and that bilateral trade has become more balanced compared to previous years. Emphasising that Türkiye’s inclusion within the scope of “Made in EU” in the draft EU Industrial Acceleration Act carries strategic importance, Chairperson Zeytinoğlu underlined that Türkiye, like the EU, should enhance its innovation and advanced technology capacity in line with industrialisation goals.

Expressing the expectation that the Customs Union should be updated to include services, agricultural products and public procurement, Chairperson Zeytinoğlu pointed out that the EU’s free trade agreements with third countries, and especially expanding trade networks such as Mercosur, create competitive disadvantages for Türkiye in various sectors, particularly agriculture. He listed the inability of the Association Council to convene since 2019 to resolve disputes, transit quotas in road transport, shortcomings in e-commerce and the new challenges brought by the Green Deal as key problem areas. Chairperson Zeytinoğlu also noted that railway investments offer a critical solution to high logistics costs. Finally, he stated that Türkiye should complete the visa liberalisation criteria as soon as possible in order to resolve the visa issue, which has become a serious non-tariff barrier and financial burden.

The keynote speech of the meeting was delivered by the guest of honour, Minister of Trade Prof. Ömer Bolat. Minister Bolat stated that the global economy is undergoing a profound transformation shaped by geopolitical fragmentation, rising protectionism and tariff wars, and emphasised that despite these challenging conditions the Turkish economy demonstrated a positive performance by growing by 3.6% in 2025. He noted that on the 30th anniversary of the Customs Union, bilateral trade volume had reached 233 billion dollars and that the export-to-import coverage ratio had almost reached 100%, achieving a balanced structure.

Minister Bolat highlighted that EU-sourced foreign direct investments play a critical role in Türkiye’s production and supply chain integration and underlined that Türkiye has become an indispensable part of European industry. Drawing attention to the EU’s search for new approaches such as “Made in EU”, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and new steel quotas in response to protectionist trends and competition from China, Minister Bolat stated that Türkiye’s inclusion in the draft Industrial Acceleration Act as a result of intensive trade diplomacy conducted by both the public and private sectors represents a strategic success in securing mutual investments.

Minister Bolat added that bilateral dialogue continues regarding the updating of the Customs Union in areas such as services, e-commerce and public procurement. Pointing to the asymmetry created by the EU’s free trade agreements with third countries and transit quotas that hinder the free movement of goods, he also noted that the EU’s shift to a cascade system in the visa process has reduced waiting times and complaints for the Turkish business community, while stressing that the ultimate goal remains visa liberalisation. Finally, Minister Bolat emphasised that the green and digital transitions are essential for competitiveness and highlighted the strategic importance of Türkiye’s participation in the SAFE Programme with the strength of its defence industry.

The panel titled “The Customs Union and the Updating Process, the EU’s FTAs and Their Impacts, the European Green Deal and the Digital Agenda, the Competitiveness Compass, the ‘Made in EU’ Criterion and the Industrial Acceleration Act” was moderated by IKV Vice-Chairperson Prof. Halûk Kabaalioğlu. The speakers were Director of the European Research Institute at Marmara University Prof. Emirhan Göral, IKV Secretary General Assoc. Prof. Çiğdem Nas and IKV Deputy Secretary General M. Gökhan Kilit.

Prof. Göral stated that the EU is a vital actor for Türkiye with no alternative in political and production spheres, emphasising that Türkiye has strong allies within Europe and that economic and political dynamics continuously reinforce one another in bilateral relations. He underlined that the Customs Union provides Türkiye with quota-free and tariff-free access to the European single market and that, thanks to the EU’s rule-setting power, Türkiye’s production standards have improved and its integration into global markets has become easier. Prof. Göral noted that this process has increased foreign direct investment and transformed the Turkish economy from a structure dominated by textiles and agriculture into high value-added industrial production such as automotive and white goods.

However, he pointed out that Türkiye’s absence from the decision-making mechanisms of the Customs Union, despite being directly affected by its outcomes, constitutes a major weakness. Prof. Göral also emphasised that the EU’s new-generation FTAs with third countries covering services, agriculture and public procurement create a serious asymmetry to Türkiye’s disadvantage. While noting that the Customs Union has been an indispensable foundation that has brought Türkiye to its current economic level, he stressed that it must be updated in line with evolving global conditions and that effective and continuous political lobbying in Brussels by all segments of society, from academia to the business community, is necessary to safeguard economic interests during this revision process.

The second speaker of the panel, IKV Deputy Secretary General Kilit, recalled that the Customs Union was designed not merely as a trade liberalisation mechanism but as a strategic step intended to lead Türkiye towards EU membership. He stated that this process has historically served as a driving force in making Turkish industry globally competitive and triggering legal reforms. Despite criticisms regarding trade deficits over the past 30 years, Kilit noted that total trade with the EU has increased sixfold and exports ninefold, and that Türkiye’s export structure has evolved from labour-intensive, low-technology products to medium- and high-technology goods.

He also underlined that particularly after the launch of accession negotiations in 2005, Türkiye experienced a major surge in foreign direct investment. Drawing attention to asymmetries stemming from Türkiye’s inability to participate in EU decision-making processes, transport quotas and the EU’s comprehensive FTAs with third countries, Kilit stated that updating the Customs Union to include services, agriculture and public procurement could potentially increase Türkiye’s GDP by around 2%. He also noted that new regulatory frameworks such as the Green Deal, the “Made in EU” criteria and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism threaten existing gains and that Türkiye is the third country globally most affected by CBAM. Kilit emphasised that the updating process should not be instrumentalised by political crises and should remain linked to the perspective of full membership. Finally, he pointed out the contradiction between the EU’s strict preconditions placed before Türkiye, such as rule of law and fundamental rights, for updating the Customs Union and the more flexible commitments applied in its FTA negotiations with India.

Assoc. Prof. Çiğdem Nas stated that in response to the protectionist trade policies of the United States and intense competition from China in net-zero technologies, the EU has been designing a new and ambitious industrial policy aligned with the objectives of the Green Deal and digitalisation. She pointed out that the Industrial Acceleration Act, designed to reduce external dependency in strategic sectors, simplify bureaucracy and create leading markets, introduces “Made in EU” and low-carbon conditions in public procurement and state aid. Assoc. Prof. Nas noted that the inclusion of Customs Union partners in this draft currently constitutes a positive and critical achievement for Türkiye.

However, she stressed that rapid adaptation to supply chain transformations in sectors such as automotive and energy-intensive industries is necessary and that public procurement legislation should be reviewed. She also highlighted that the comprehensive FTA being negotiated by the EU with India at record speed could deepen structural challenges for Türkiye in terms of competitiveness in the European market and the risk of trade diversion. Recalling that the updating process of the Customs Union continues to be hindered by political issues such as rulings of the European Court of Human Rights, the Eastern Mediterranean dispute and various geopolitical tensions, Assoc. Prof. Nas emphasised that Türkiye should move beyond a discourse of “being treated unfairly” and pursue a proactive lobbying and diplomacy strategy that highlights the concrete added value it can offer to the EU in terms of strategic autonomy and supply chain security, involving all actors from academia to the business community.

The meeting concluded with a question-and-answer session.