Chairperson of the Kocaeli Chamber of Industry and IKV Chairperson Ayhan Zeytinoğlu commented on the impact of the tariff increases introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump against numerous countries, stating, “As promised during his election campaign, President Trump announced extensive tariff increases, particularly targeting countries that apply high customs duties against the U.S., and while countries like China, Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan are adversely affected, a 10% rate has been set for Türkiye, which indicates that Türkiye may gain a competitive advantage in the U.S. market over some of its rivals, particularly in textiles; however, the 10% tariff applies only to sectors excluding steel, aluminium, copper, certain pharmaceuticals, and automotive parts, in which the existing 25% duty will continue to apply at the same rate, and it is encouraging that the 25% tariff imposed on Türkiye will now also be applied to other countries.”

U.S. TARIFFS TO INTENSIFY COMPETITION

“On the other hand,” continued Chairperson Zeytinoğlu, “countries like China, which see a decline in their competitiveness in the U.S. market, may adopt more aggressive export strategies, thereby increasing competition for Türkiye in markets such as the EU, and while Türkiye may benefit from a relatively low tariff advantage in the U.S. market for the time being, there is potential to increase its market share, considering that the U.S. is currently our second-largest export market after Germany; in 2024, the chemicals sector topped the list with exports worth 1.5 billion dollars, followed by the automotive industry with 1.2 billion dollars, ready-made clothing and apparel with 856 million dollars, carpets with 784.3 million dollars, and electrical and electronics products with 774.1 million dollars.”

THE EU IN TRUMP’S CROSSHAIRS

“From the perspective of EU relations,” Zeytinoğlu said, “it is evident that the EU is particularly targeted by Trump, and following the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum and the 25% tariff on automobiles, a new 20% additional customs duty is now on the table; Trump used to claim he was applying the principle of reciprocity by stating ‘whatever tariffs are applied to us, we will apply the same in return,’ but we have seen that this is not the case; the 2025 U.S. Trade Forecast Report prepared by the Department of Commerce defines various EU regulations such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the Deforestation Regulation, REACH, the F-Gases Regulation, the Packaging Waste Regulation, digital service taxes, and the Medical Devices Regulation—which were adopted to regulate the EU internal market—as threats to U.S. economic interests, and in response, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced that the EU will also take countermeasures and that tariff increases will be implemented by mid-April.”

“In the first stage, the EU will reintroduce the tariff hikes on products such as whiskey, textiles, steel and aluminium, boats, and motorcycles, which were initially enacted during Trump’s first presidency in 2018 but were later suspended; the EU has published a 100-page document listing the tariff codes for industrial and agricultural products that will be subject to the new tariffs, covering goods with a total value of 18 billion euros.”

“It is likely that the EU will seek alternative markets and attempt to reduce costs, which could lead to increased investments in Türkiye as a production base, and both European and Chinese companies may consider investing in Turkish firms to gain access to the U.S. market through Türkiye; however, if Trump detects such a trend, he may then move to restrict imports from Türkiye as well.”

“In this period, updating the Customs Union is no longer a matter of commercial concern alone but has become a strategic necessity; the High-Level Economic Dialogue Meeting held on 3 April 2025, and the Türkiye Investment Platform meeting on 8 April 2025 are important steps in revitalizing Türkiye-EU economic dialogue and coordinating positions on global trade is already a requirement of the Customs Union relationship.”

“Expanding and deepening the Customs Union to include public procurement, trade in services, and agriculture could help compensate for the losses caused by U.S. policies, and a contraction in goods trade may increase the importance of digital trade and services trade, thereby unlocking untapped potential.”

“With the EU’s newly announced Clean Industry Deal, we observe that competitiveness and decarbonization goals are now interlinked, and within this framework, the EU aims to establish global partnerships for clean trade and investment; while tightening trade and investment networks, Türkiye—being one of the closest production bases to the EU—offers significant opportunities for Europe.”

Finally, Chairperson Zeytinoğlu evaluated the global effects of the recent measures, underlining the importance of intra-industry trade and noting that the growing complexity of trade, where the design, production, marketing, sales, and after-sales stages of a product can occur across different geographies, has increased the role of the services sector in manufacturing, and Chairperson Zeytinoğlu emphasized that the impact of Trump’s tariffs would be multidimensional, stressing that their effect on intra-industry trade would raise costs and negatively affect competitiveness.