The IKV Brief titled "Türkiye in the International Climate Change Regime" authored by IKV Junior Expert Aygen Torun was published from IKV Brief series. This brief analyses Türkiye's goals, strategies and efforts under the international climate regime.

TÜRKİYE IN THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME

Aygen Torun, İKV Junior Researcher

Following the Industrial Revolution, the accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere resulted in the gradual warming of our planet and the climate slowly began to change. Tackling anthropogenic climate change became urgent as our planet reaches the point of no-return and the devastating impacts of climate change can be seen everywhere in the world already.

The global climate regime brings countries together to fight climate change and there are several mechanisms that govern the regime. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Kyoto Protocol, Copenhagen Accord and the Paris Agreement are the key mechanisms that define the norms and govern the global regime.

Türkiye is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The temperature in Türkiye is getting warmer, precipitation patterns are changing, and extreme weather events are increasing in both quantity and severity. Türkiye has been a part of the global climate change regime for decades and has developed various policy documents, strategies and action plans.

Türkiye-EU relations are one of the driving forces behind Turkish climate change policy as the EU affects climate change policymaking in third countries through a range of mechanisms. Since Türkiye is both an accession country and has a Customs Union with the EU, it is one of the non-EU countries most affected by EU climate policies. This influence is evident in several climate change strategies developed by Türkiye.

It is widely recognised that Türkiye’s climate action has become increasingly ambitious over the years; however, there remains a need for more ambitious policies. The outcomes of these strategies and action plans must be measurable and effectively monitored to ensure progress. Türkiye also needs to capitalise on its renewable energy potential, which would help reduce emissions in the energy sector, the largest contributor to emissions. This approach would not only address environmental concerns but also enhance the country’s competitiveness.

Anthropogenic Climate Change

Following the Industrial Revolution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased rapidly. As a result, the human-made -also known as anthropogenic- climate change started to take effect. Anthropogenic and natural climate change are two distinct phenomena. Changes in the Earth’s temperature (whether warming or cooling) can be caused by both natural and human-made factors. Large-scale volcanic eruptions cause GHG emissions and cover the earth’s stratosphere with ash, leading to sunlight getting blocked and extreme levels of global cooling. Large-scale climatic changes caused by volcanoes took place many years ago. However, what is currently unfolding is human-made climate change. The Industrial Revolution that began in the 1800s led to an increase in the burning of fossil fuels to power the industrial transformation on a global scale and the world’s economy still largely relies on fossil fuels. Additionally, activities such as deforestation and agricultural production generate GHG emissions.

GHG emissions trap heat from the sun and increase the temperature of our planet, causing the Earth to get warmer gradually. However, a changing climate does not only mean the globe is continuously warming. This change in Earth’s climate causes extreme weather events to occur more frequently and become more severe, the melting of the polar ice caps, a reduction in biodiversity, population displacement and food insecurity among many other effects. In short, when the climate changes, everything related to life on Earth gradually becomes off-balance.

Climate change mitigation can reverse this trend. Reducing the GHG emissions and capturing emissions are the main ways to fight climate change. To achieve this goal, various strategies can be implemented. One example is the green growth approach, which holds that economies can continue to grow while minimising their impact on climate change. Conversely, some argue that the global economic system must change drastically to reduce emissions before it’s too late.

The international climate regime is where all the efforts to fight climate change culminate and turn into large-scale meaningful action. However, the regime has its challenges. Perhaps the most important challenge to tackling GHG emissions globally is allocating responsibility for emissions. It is not agreed upon whether the historically most polluters, the recent most polluters, the income groups who release the most emissions or the large companies should contribute the most. The international climate regime tries to find a solution to such problems to be able to move forward in the fight against climate change.

While the climate changes in unprecedented rates, international efforts fail to keep up. Although the countries have been taking decisive steps, they need to step up their efforts. UNEP’s (United Nations Environment Programme) annual emissions gap report paints a bleak picture. The report for the year 2024 establishes that if countries’ current NDCs are not updated, our planet will face a 2.6-degree Celsius warming in the best-case scenario. This scenario exceeds both the 1.5- and 2-degrees Celsius limits and makes it more likely that the world will reach a point of no return. If the current national climate change policies are applied, the warming will reach 3.1 degrees Celsius, which will lead to significantly devastating effects.^[1] This urgency is what makes it important to understand how the global climate change regime works.

The International Climate Change Regime

International regimes are defined as “a set of implicit or explicit principles, norms, rules, and decision-making procedures around which actors’ expectations converge”.[2] In simpler terms, an international regime is a set of rules that help govern an issue area in the global scale. The increasing awareness of environmental problems and the following surge in environmental movements resulted in the emergence of the global climate regime towards the end of 1980s.[3] Publication of the Brundtland Commission Report named “Our Common Future” drew attention to the effects of climate change.[4] The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was opened for signature in 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro.[5]

Currently, several mechanisms and agreements govern the international climate change regime. The UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, the Copenhagen Accord, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action and Paris Agreement are all parts that make up the current international climate change regime. The rules and norms agreed upon in these mechanisms and agreements define the characteristics of the international climate regime.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

The UNFCCC was opened to signature in Rio Earth Summit in 1992 and it took effect in 1994. Although there was limited scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change, the UNFCCC is significant in the sense that the Convention recognised and identified the problem. The UNFCCC recognises the need to set a limit on GHG emissions within a specific timeframe to allow the environment to adapt to climate change, support sustainable economic growth, and ensure food security. Industrialised countries are expected to contribute the most to emissions reductions, as set out in the Kyoto Protocol. Developing countries are provided with funds to finance their climate change efforts through a system of loans and grants from developed nations. Both developing and developed countries report on their progress to the UNFCCC, albeit according to different criteria.[6]

The global climate regime has a secretariat located in Bonn, Germany, and includes many subdivisions, employing around 450 staff.[7] The secretariat is tasked with supporting the international efforts to fight climate change.[8] UNFCCC brings together the parties to the Convention to engage in important decision-making processes. These meetings are known as Conference of Parties (COP) and they provide a platform to negotiate agreements and accords, create new mechanisms for the global governance of the international climate regime, set up goals and pledges and ensure reporting and monitoring of implementation of certain provisions.

Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997 and entered into force in 2005. The Protocol currently has 192 parties, and it helped operationalise the UNFCCC by making developed countries commit to emission reduction efforts by their pledges. Therefore, it is only legally binding for the developed countries.[9]

Kyoto Protocol established an emissions trading system and a flexible market mechanism. While countries are required to meet their targets through national policies, the Protocol also provides three market-based international mechanisms to help them meet these targets more efficiently. These mechanisms are as follows:[10]

• International Emissions Trading: Parties to the Kyoto Protocol have a level of allowed (or assigned) emissions over the 2008-2012 period. Emissions Trading is set out in Article 17 of the Protocol, and it allows countries to trade their spare emission allowances. This turns emissions into a commodity. Such emissions trading systems can also be found at the national level, or the EU’s case, on the supranational level.[11]
• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM): The mechanism is set out in Article 12 of the Protocol, and it allows a developed country that pledged to reduce or limit its emissions to implement a similar project to reduce emissions in developing countries. This also counts towards a developed country’s emission reduction efforts, granting them more flexibility in their commitments.[12]
• Joint Implementation (JI): This mechanism is defined in Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol and refers to the joint implementation of emission reduction projects. More specifically, it allows parties to gain emission reduction units when they invest in a project in another nation’s territory. Such projects are named “Joint Implementation Projects”.[13] This mechanism also helps countries with more funds to reduce emissions by investing in another party, ensuring a smoother transition to climate neutrality.

All these mechanisms afford the Kyoto Protocol a high level of flexibility.

Kyoto Protocol established a monitoring and compliance system for transparency. Countries’ emissions are monitored and tracked. The Protocol also monitors the transactions between parties while the compliance system ensures that parties are on track with their pledges and guides them.[14]

With the Doha Amendment, Kyoto Protocol sets legally binding obligations for the second commitment period for 30 parties which are: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, EU, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.[15]

Doha Amendment includes:

• New commitments for parties who agreed on a second round of commitments,
• A renewed list for the GHGs to be reported by parties in the second period,
• Amendments of several articles of the Protocol on the issues concerning the first period that need to be updated for the second period.[16]

The Copenhagen Accord

The Copenhagen Accord is the outcome of COP15, organised in Copenhagen in 2009. The Accord comprises explicit emission reduction pledges by all the major economies, including China and other important developing economies. The Accord is not a legal agreement but a political one. The parties at the COP15 agreed to “take note of”, at the final plenary session on 18 December 2009.^[17]

The decisions adopted were parallel to the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. The core elements of the Accord are a long-term goal, mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology, forests and measurement, reporting and verification. Regarding a long-term goal, the Accord acknowledges the scientific information about the global temperature increase limits and establishes that it should be kept below 2 degrees Celsius. The Accord also envisaged a review in 2015 to strengthen the goal to include a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase limit. The developed countries were expected to pledge to implement emission reduction targets for 2020, while the developing nations will begin implementing mitigation actions. Developed countries’ emission targets and funding for developing countries would be measured, reported and verified. The same would be applied to developing countries but the measuring, reporting and verification would take place through processes in their domestic legislation albeit with international consultation and evaluation. Only the actions funded by international support were subject to international measurement, reporting and verification processes.[18] 

Developed countries would provide finance for the adaptation actions in the developing nations. The Accord also recognised the immediacy of establishing a financial mechanism to support emission reductions in deforestation and forest degradation. This is crucial in the sense that forests are important carbon sinks. In addition, funding for the developing countries had to be improved and from 2010 to 2012, developed countries needed to commit to set up new financial sources of nearly USD 30 billion. Developed countries pledged to jointly mobilise USD 100 billion by 2020. Technology transfer would accelerate to facilitate adaptation and mitigation.[19]

However, the Accord did not include binding commitments. This task was later exercised by the Paris Agreement, but the elements endorsed and taken note of in the Copenhagen Accord became a head start for the creation of the Paris Agreement.

The Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is the first legally binding international climate change agreement which has 196 parties currently. The Agreement was adopted in 2015, and it entered into force in 2016. Paris Agreement aims to keep the global temperature increase below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels and commits to making the effort to keep it under 1.5 degrees Celsius. According to the IPCC, the temperature increase should be no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius as it causes severe impacts with a high likelihood of no return. Therefore, the GHG emissions should peak before 2025 and decline by 43% by 2030.[20]

In every five years, the countries are expected to step up their climate ambitions. Countries have been submitting their nationally determined contribution (NDC) documents since 2020. Every NDC has to be more ambitious than the previous one to ensure continuous improvement. In the NDCs, countries set out their actions to reduce their GHGs and build resilience to adapt to climate change. In COP27, countries were assigned the responsibility to update their targets for the year 2030 and update their NDCs accordingly, to align with the 1.5-degree Celsius goal. Countries are also expected to provide specific actions for reducing their GHGs in the long term. They are expected to prepare and submit long term GHG emission development strategies (LT-LEDS). These strategies act as a pathway towards ensuring that countries meet their long-term goals. One difference between the LT-LEDS and NDCs is that the LT-LEDS is not obligatory.[21]

Climate finance has an important role in ensuring that the Paris Agreement fulfils its purpose. The Agreement encourages developed countries to step up their voluntary contributions. It also acknowledges that technological advancement and technology transfer will improve resilience and mitigation efforts. With its technology framework, it provides guidance for the Technology Mechanism of the UNFCCC. Additionally, the Agreement calls for increased support for capacity building in developing countries. The Paris Agreement established an enhanced transparency framework (ETF). Starting in 2024, countries report on their actions and progress in a transparent way. The information gathered through this framework is incorporated into the Global Stocktake, which then evaluates the collective progress of all parties towards the long-term climate goals.[22]

Alongside many countries, organisations and stakeholders, Türkiye also has an important role in the global climate regime thanks to its pledges, strategies and action plans. Türkiye has a significant degree of stake in preventing climate change as it is one of the countries most affected.

The Effects of Climate Change in Türkiye

Climate change affects countries disproportionately and Türkiye stands out as one of the most affected nations. As a country situated in the Mediterranean, Türkiye is susceptible to risks brought by the effects of climate change. The University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN) provides data on countries’ vulnerability to climate change. According to the dataset, Türkiye appears to be vulnerable to the risks brought by the climate change.[23]

Figure 1: Countries’ Vulnerability to Climate Change

Source: Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative Country Index (ND-GAIN)[24]

Studies demonstrate that there is a significant degree of warming observed in Türkiye, and it is consistently increasing. Türkiye faced an increase in the number of summer days and tropical days. 50% of the record maximum air temperature was observed after the 2000s. In the last 25 years, the temperature regime in Türkiye changed drastically and the temperatures got warmer as the frequency and magnitude of heatwaves increased.^[25]   

Regarding precipitation patterns, the winter and spring precipitation has decreased to a significant extent. In the Aegean, Mediterranean and South-eastern Anatolian regions, there have been cases of severe drought. Annual total precipitation is also decreasing, while the type of rainfall causing floods and landslides is observed on more occasions.[26]

The country is vulnerable to risks such as droughts, floods, heatwaves, coastal erosion and wildfires.^[27] Since 2018, the number of meteorological disasters has increased greatly.^[28] 8,274 climate change-related meteorological disasters occurred between 2010 and 2021, and they are expected to worsen due to the adverse effects of climate change.^[29] The country is disproportionately threatened by forest fires.^[30] 2,793 forest fires were recorded in Türkiye, and 139,502 hectares of forests have been damaged in 2021 alone.[31]

All these changes affect many factors in Türkiye, ranging from agricultural yield to tourism due to geographic, climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Climate change continues to cause economic losses, leading to economic insecurity.^[32] The rapid increase in population and the wave of migration put further stress on the natural resources in Türkiye that were already under strain. Aridity is projected to increase due to decreased precipitation and increased temperature. This will decrease crop cultivation, leading to food insecurity. Heatwaves will affect the daily life and health of the people.^[33]

According to the World Bank indicators for climate risk and vulnerability, Türkiye is among the countries at the most risk. Especially regarding the transport system, food and water security, natural disasters; Türkiye is in a position of high risk.[34]

Figure 2: Climate Risk and Vulnerability in Türkiye and Selected Countries

Source: World Bank Group[35]

Climate change is projected to continue to affect Türkiye in the future, according to business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios. Studies demonstrate an expected annual mean temperature increase of 2,7 degrees Celsius. Precipitation is projected to continue to decrease and the variability in the trends is projected to get more volatile in time.[36]

Türkiye’s overall vulnerability is one of the main reasons for the urgency of national climate action. Another crucial reason is the country’s GHG emissions over the years. It is well established that Türkiye is on a path of high GHG emissions, which gives Türkiye the responsibility to take action in order to reduce its emissions. Türkiye’s energy sector is the most responsible for GHG emissions, requiring urgent sectoral action.

Figure 3: Türkiye’s GHG Emissions and Removals (1990-2022)

Source: Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change[37]

Türkiye in the International Climate Change Regime

Türkiye’s climate change policies date back to the 1990s. However, Türkiye’s concerted efforts in global climate change policymaking began to shape in 2004 due to the ratification of the UNFCCC and accession negotiations to the EU. The diplomatic efforts around these two developments culminated in Türkiye’s active participation in the regime. As it is the case today, the EU accession process requires countries to take climate change action.[38]

Türkiye’s ratification of the Kyoto Protocol was delayed for several reasons. As a member of the OECD, Türkiye had the initial obligation to be included in Annex 1 and 2 of the Protocol when it was first adopted in 1992. Annex 1 required Türkiye to pledge to reduce its emissions unconditionally while Annex 2 would oblige Türkiye to provide financing and technology to developing countries. Türkiye conducted negotiations to be removed from the two annexes, claiming to be a developing country. Türkiye’s request did not get accepted; therefore, the country applied to be removed only from Annex 2, claiming that it is in the first phase of industrialisation. This request was accepted and Türkiye became a party to the UNFCCC in 2004. Taking part in Annex B, Türkiye did not commit to any emissions reductions. Türkiye’s special circumstances were acknowledged, and Türkiye was classified differently than the other Parties in Annex 1.[39]

Until the ratification of the Paris Agreement, which came relatively late, Türkiye’s actions were somewhat stalled. However, with the ratification of the Agreement in 2021, Türkiye’s participation in the regime became more dynamic, with many strategies and action plans enacted.

2010-2023 National Strategy on Climate Change and 2011-2023 National Climate Change Action Plan

The strategy involves a set of objectives in the short-term, mid-term and the long-term. The main objectives concerning climate action are integrating climate change into development policies, ensuring energy efficiency and increasing the use of renewables. The Strategy sets out that Türkiye aims to actively be a part of international efforts. Türkiye committed to limiting the rate of growth of GHG emissions without compromising development. However, noting Türkiye’s economic and demographic development status, the Strategy does not include a GHG emission reduction commitment for a specified baseline year. The country plans to limit emissions with various measures that are also in line with sustainable development priorities. Türkiye aims to put into action all the strategies in the document, considering the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and ensuring that these actions are not only national but also a part of international efforts.[40]

Long-term strategies were expected to produce an outcome in 10 years. In the energy sector, Türkiye aimed to increase the share of renewable energy in total energy generation by up to 30%. Additionally, GHG emissions from electricity generation would be 7% less compared to the BAU scenario by 2020. In transportation, the share of railways and seaways in passenger transportation and the use of alternative fuels would increase. Concerning industry, the strategies include a transition to cleaner production, innovation and energy efficiency. In terms of waste, more efficient waste management and increased recycling were planned. Lastly, in land use, agriculture and forestry, there are very detailed strategies, culminating in a projected enhanced monitoring, planning and a reduced urban stress on forests and rural land.[41] Overall, a concrete emissions reduction target and quantitative sectoral targets in various indicators appear to be lacking.

According to the 2010-2023 National Strategy on Climate Change, 2011-2023 National Climate Change Action Plan advances the efforts by outlining concrete steps to be taken. One difference between the two documents is that the Action Plan also includes the building sector and analyses agriculture and land use and forestry sectors separately.[42]

Paris Agreement and Türkiye’s NDCs

Türkiye signed the Paris Agreement in 2016; however, ratification was not until 2021. In 2015, Türkiye submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). Türkiye emphasised its national circumstances, which required the country to be classified as a developing country eligible for official development assistance (ODA). The INDC plans up to 21% reduction in emissions compared to BAU scenarios by 2030. The period of implementation is 2021-2030. The INDC covers energy, industrial processes and product use, agriculture, land use, land-use change and forestry, and waste sectors.[43] In 2021, Türkiye resubmitted its INDC as an NDC following the ratification of the Paris Agreement.

Civil society can be regarded as one of the most important stakeholders in Türkiye’s climate policies. NGOs specialized in the field of the environment were particularly active in advocating for more ambitious environmental and climate policies. Think tanks, including IKV, also aimed to provide input into the policy-making process in Türkiye regarding the acceleration of climate policies. In March 2021, IKV, together with TEPAV and IPM, published a call to accelerate Türkiye’s green transition and adopt more ambitious emissions reduction targets.[44] The call proposed the following:

1. “Türkiye should ratify the Paris Climate Agreement, of which it was among the first signatories in 2016. This initial step is important as it demonstrates Türkiye’s willingness to position itself as a serious actor in the global agenda for transitioning to a low-carbon economy.
2. The INDC submitted to the Secretariat of UNFCCC in 2015 should be updated realistically and aligned with current conditions.
3. Considering that the EU is Türkiye’s most significant export market and taking into account the process of updating the Customs Union, industrial, energy, agricultural, and trade policies should be reviewed from a green transformation perspective to address the challenges posed by the Green Deal. A synchronized roadmap with the EU should be developed and followed in this transformation process.”

In February 2022, IKV, together with IPM and TEPAV, made another call regarding Türkiye’s phase-out from coal production and consumption. The call proposed that “Türkiye should declare its political intention, along with an action plan, without delay to completely abandon coal as an energy source in electricity production by no later than 2035”.[45]

The adoption of the European Green Deal and initiatives of NGOs and other stakeholders facilitated progress in Türkiye’s climate agenda. Türkiye updated its first NDC in April 2023. Türkiye pledged to reduce its emissions by 41% compared to BAU by 2030. This signifies a leap from 21% to 41% emissions reduction including the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector. The country also commits to achieving net zero by 2053. The updated first NDC is economy-wide and includes both mitigation and adaptation measures. In the document it is claimed that Türkiye predicts a peak in emissions in 2038. Meanwhile, adaptation policies are set out in these areas: agriculture and forestry, water, disaster risk management, urban sector, rural development and public health.[46]

The Green Deal Action Plan

As an EU candidate country, Türkiye takes necessary steps in line with the EU’s climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. Türkiye also has close economic ties with the EU due to the Customs Union, which creates a more integrated partnership beyond a candidate status. In particular, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) requires companies exporting to the EU to reduce emissions associated with their production processes. Given that approximately 40% of Türkiye’s total exports go to the EU, CBAM has a significant impact on the Turkish economy.

Considering the impact of the European Green Deal on the EU’s climate change policies, it is important to assess how Türkiye harmonises its policies with the Green Deal regarding climate-related objectives. To respond to the need of harmonisation, on the 16^th of July 2021, “Green Deal Action Plan of Türkiye” was published by the Ministry of Trade.

Through the Green Deal Action Plan, Türkiye aims to ensure compliance with the EU Green Deal in many areas, also allowing Türkiye to develop sustainably. The Action Plan addresses many policy areas related to climate change:

• CBAM,
• Green and Circular Economy,
• Green Finance,
• Clean, Affordable and Secure Energy Supply,
• Sustainable Agriculture,
• Sustainable Smart Transportation,
• Tackling Climate Change,
• Diplomacy,
• Information and Awareness Raising Activities.[47]

Türkiye’s First Climate Council

Türkiye’s first Climate Council convened in Konya in February 2022. Organised by the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change, the Council meetings produced valuable outcomes for the future of Turkish climate change policymaking. The meetings hosted more than 1,000 stakeholders from public institutions, academia, businesses, farmers and civil society.[48] Commission meetings took place around six thematic areas, which comprised science and technology, local governments, adaptation, GHG reduction, green financing and carbon pricing, migration, just transition and other social policies.[49]

The Council meeting produced 217 recommendations to guide Türkiye’s climate action in the future. The seven main areas that the recommendations cover are adaptable cities, climate-friendly agriculture, a drought action plan, environmental and clean transportation networks, clean energy, a green economy and climate education.[50]

There are some highlights among the recommendations. The final recommendations document devotes a section that groups energy, transportation and industry together for GHG emissions reduction. The Council recommends an increase in the use of renewables, a roadmap for emissions reductions, support for efficiency improvements, a national energy efficiency vision, strategy and action plan (already published in 2023) and a strategy and roadmap for green hydrogen. In the transport sector, the Council recommends developing scenarios for future action plans, increasing the share of railways and maritime transport in cargo transport and passenger transportation, expanding the use of zero- or low-emission means of public transport, conducting smart mobility planning, developing battery and charging infrastructure and promoting the use of biofuels. Regarding the 2053 net zero ambitions for the industry section, it is recommended that projections for industry, prioritising energy-intensive sectors should be made to develop roadmaps, and Türkiye should work towards ensuring a transition to a circular economy.[51]

In the area of green financing, the Council recommends the preparation of a National Green Finance Strategy by 2023, establishing a technical expert group for the preparation of national green taxonomy legislation (work in progress) by 2023, assessing, measuring, analysing and managing climate-related financial risks, licensing inspection institutions to prevent greenwashing and ensuring institutional cooperation. Regarding carbon pricing and ETS, the Council advises Türkiye to accelerate work towards establishing a national ETS in alignment with the EU and Türkiye’s climate law, conduct impact assessments for CBAM, perform impact assessments for carbon pricing to set up a price and develop a roadmap by 2025.[52]

The final recommendation document also includes GHG reductions in LULUCF, agriculture, the circular economy, adaptation, climate migration, climate justice, a just transition, health and climate education.[53]

Türkiye’s 2024-2030 Climate Change Mitigation Strategy and Action Plan

Türkiye continues its efforts to tackle climate change, and the 2024-2030 Climate Change Mitigation Strategy and Action Plan (CCMSAP) is one of the most recent developments. The document was prepared by the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change and launched in March 2024. The document sets out different action plans for numerous sectors:

• Energy,
• Industry,
• Buildings,
• Transport,
• Waste,
• Agriculture,
• Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry.

The Plan also focuses on cross-cutting issues of just transition and carbon pricing mechanisms.[54]

The strategies in the energy sector include decarbonising electricity production, aligning the energy sector with other sectors, supporting demand-side engagement, strengthening electricity infrastructure and increasing efficiency. Additionally, they address the creation of a roadmap for carbon capture, utilisation and storage to reduce unavoidable GHG emissions. According to the CCMSAP, Türkiye plans to increase the installed capacity of solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal and biomass power. The country also plans to boost hydrogen use in electricity generation, develop roadmaps for these different renewable energy sectors and support R&D to decarbonise the electricity sector. The Plan also aims to boost other energy-related sectors, such as batteries and charging infrastructure. Overall, the Plan demonstrates some degree of commitment to making advancements in renewable energy and decarbonising the sector, which is crucial for reducing emissions resulting from the energy sector in numerous ways.[55]

The Plan sets out actions to ensure energy efficiency, use of renewable energy, reduce the carbon footprint and carbon intensity in manufacturing sectors. In addition, Türkiye aims to promote sustainable reporting, building capacity for stakeholders in the manufacturing sector and promoting a circular economy and resource efficiency in the industrial sector. The Plan also outlines actions to develop new technology through R&D and innovation while relying on national resources, supporting sustainable investment and creating sources of finance. The Plan’s objectives in the buildings sector include improving the energy efficiency of both existing and new buildings, as well as the energy efficiency in using electrical appliances, equipment and devices in the buildings sector. Additionally, the Plan aims to promote district heating and cooling, the use of eco-friendly materials and digitally transform the construction sector through various digital tools.[56]

The Plan envisages matching demand with different means of transport to optimize transportation and curb emissions.  In addition, Türkiye aims to increase efficiency in the transport sector and source more fuels from clean energy sources.  Therefore, a transition to more energy- and emission-efficient transport, such as railways and maritime transport, from the road or air transport is planned.  Additional goals in the transport sector include promoting public transport and increasing its efficiency, improving the efficiency of private and shared transportation, promoting the use of less carbon-intensive vehicles, and enhancing the efficiency of cargo transport.[57] 

The Plan aims to prevent and reduce waste and wastewater generation, improve waste recycling and recovery rates, reduce the amount of untreated waste deposited in sanitary landfills, improve wastewater management and treatment infrastructure, develop human resources and social awareness as part of zero waste practices and reducing GHG emissions, develop financing mechanisms to improve waste management by the circular economy and emission reduction, increase R&D activities to develop technological infrastructure for improving waste management, increase the use of waste as raw material in production processes and reduce GHG emissions from waste-handling equipment and vehicles.  The Plan aims to harmonise national waste and wastewater management legislation, taking emissions into account. Regarding the agricultural sector, the Plan lays out strategies and actions to mitigate methane emissions from livestock breeding, increase efficiency in the use of chemical fertilisers, provide farmers with access to affordable financing, promote training, awareness-raising and capacity-building activities for stakeholders in the agricultural sector while considering gender balance.[58] 

Increasing GHG sequestration annually by protecting and managing ecosystems, increasing sink areas, reducing ecosystem-based emissions, ensuring transition in this sector to a circular bioeconomy, supporting R&D and innovation, building skills and developing technology infrastructure in the sector are the strategies laid out in the CCMSAP. The Plan aims to implement all these policies with consideration of the just transition aspect. The importance of a just transition lies in ensuring that, when transforming the economy to a green and net-zero one, no one is left behind. Therefore, the Plan includes strategies to build capacity for just transition and employment transformation. Additionally, Türkiye aims to establish an Emission Trading System (ETS) and has outlined measures in other important documents. However, with this Plan, Türkiye reaffirms its commitment to establishing an ETS that aligns with EU environmental policy and the EU ETS.[59]

Türkiye’s 2024-2030 Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

The Plan aims to make Türkiye more resilient and prepared for the effects of climate change. Strategies and action plans include 11 sectors: urban, water, resources management, agriculture and food security, biodiversity and ecosystem services, public health, energy, industry, tourism and cultural heritage, transport and communication, social development and disaster risk reduction. Additionally, the Plan covers cross-cutting issues including technological capacity building.[60] 

The Plan includes 40 goals and 132 actions in 11 sectors and cross-cutting issues. The key goals are as follows:

• Classifying and transforming buildings that are at risk of flooding,
• Increasing the rate of reuse in treated wastewater by up to 15% by 2030 and increasing the quantity of treated wastewater,
• Updating agricultural policies to achieve climate resilience, digital transformation and alignment of basin product patterns and water budgets,
• Participating in the global efforts to ensure the share of marine and land protected areas is 30%,
• Setting up a system to identify indicators and health impact chains,
• Identifying risks in the energy sector strengthening production, transmission, distribution, and storage infrastructure to enhance climate change adaptation,
• Establishing guides to identify and manage risks to cultural heritage elements,
• Identifying facilities under possible risk of industrial accidents and planning priority adaptation actions,
• Including social development in 2053 long-term climate change strategy,
• Prioritising resilience-building investments in critical sectors,
• Drafting Local Climate Change Action Plans (LCCAP) for all 81 provinces.[61]

One important aspect of the Plan is that it plans to draft sectoral action plans, which will facilitate industrial adaptation to climate change to a great extent. The Plan also aims to contribute to the global goal on adaptation, under the negotiation of the Paris Agreement.[62]

2053 Long-Term Climate Strategy

Türkiye’s 2053 Long-Term Climate Strategy was submitted to the UNFCCC and announced in COP29, which was held in November 2024. Türkiye’s 2053 Long-Term Climate Strategy establishes strategies for Türkiye to achieve its goal of net zero by 2053. It comprises 35 strategies in 7 sectors in the mitigation section and 38 strategies in 11 sectors in the adaptation section. 16 additional strategies cover technology, just transition, climate finance and capacity building.[63]

Although there are many strategies included in the document, some of them appear to be at the forefront. To ensure Türkiye achieves its net zero goal timely, in the energy sector by 2030, the Strategy aims to reduce energy consumption, increase the installed capacity of nuclear energy, electrolyser and battery, reduce energy intensity, increase capacity of solar and wind energy and increase the share of renewable energy. The Strategy plans emission reductions in iron and steel, cement, aluminium and fertiliser sectors. Emission reduction targets in these sectors have certain thresholds based on years. The Strategy also aims to reduce hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) consumption as HFC, used mainly in cooling systems, is a synthetic gas which stays in the atmosphere for a long time.[64]

In the buildings sector, the Strategy plans that new buildings with a usable area of or more than 2000 m² will need to meet the Nearly Zero Energy Building standards by 2025. Energy savings in public buildings, requirement for buildings to have Energy Performance Certificate Class A rating, requirement that all new buildings to be constructed as Net Zero Operational Carbon Buildings, reduction of emissions in the buildings sector and prevention of 2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions are also part of the Strategy.

Türkiye’s Draft Green Taxonomy Directive