IKV organized a webinar titled “The Impact of the German Election Results on the EU and Türkiye-EU Relations” on 28 February 2025.

The webinar was moderated by IKV Deputy Secretary General M. Gökhan Kilit, who also delivered the opening remarks. After briefly introducing the speakers, Deputy Secretary General Kilit provided an overview of the election results in Germany.

The first speaker, Researcher at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) Dr. Yaşar Aydın began by informing participants about the key outcomes of the election. After assessing the gains and losses of political parties, Dr. Aydın examined the underlying reasons behind the election results under two main categories. First, he addressed structural factors, identifying economic challenges, issues in local government services, difficulties in the healthcare and pension sectors, and investment gaps as key influences. Then, he discussed conjunctural factors, highlighting the erosion of trust in mainstream parties, disagreements over the twin transition, strategic missteps by political parties, and incidents that have contributed to framing migration as a security issue. Dr. Aydın warned that one of the social consequences of the elections could be a rise in xenophobia, which is concerning. However, Dr. Aydın predicted that Germany’s approach toward Türkiye would likely continue pragmatically without major disruptions in bilateral relations.

The second speaker, Assoc. Prof. Ebru Turhan from the Turkish-German University, started by analysing the key election outcomes. Assoc. Prof. Turhan noted a shift to the right in German politics and shared her insights on potential coalition scenarios. Addressing the elections’ implications for German foreign policy, Assoc. Prof. Turhan stated that Germany faces several external challenges that test its foreign policy direction. Assoc. Prof. Turhan suggested that identity politics might become more influential in shaping foreign policy themes and that Germany’s approach to relations with the U.S.A., Russia, and China could trigger societal reactions. Assessing the potential impact of the elections on Türkiye-Germany relations, Assoc. Prof. Turhan argued that a decline in the influence of norm-based foreign policy in German politics could lead to a more constructive approach toward Türkiye. However, Assoc. Prof. Turhan also emphasized that Türkiye’s relations with the EU would likely continue within a strategic partnership framework.

The final speaker, IKV Secretary General Assoc. Prof. Çiğdem Nas, began her remarks by evaluating how global political challenges might influence German politics. Secretary General Nas highlighted how transatlantic relations, shaken during Donald Trump’s presidency, had pushed the EU to prioritize competitiveness, a trend that could also shape German politics. Assoc. Prof. Nas stressed the importance of Germany’s transition to Industry 5.0, the reduction of bureaucracy, and the acceleration of digital transformation. Assoc. Prof. Nas noted that Germany is currently experiencing the challenges of transitioning its social market model and economic contraction, which could necessitate reforms in financial mechanisms. However, Assoc. Prof. Nas stated that how the new coalition government will navigate these challenges remains uncertain.

Assoc. Prof. Nas also pointed out that at a time when the EU is simplifying the rules for its green transition, the new German government under Merz could support these efforts. However, Assoc. Prof. Nas cautioned that the rise of sovereigntist far-right movements, both in Germany and France, poses challenges for EU reforms. Assessing Türkiye-EU relations in the context of the elections, Assoc. Prof. Nas emphasized that cooperation is increasingly prioritized over the membership perspective. Assoc. Prof. Nas noted that the EU is focusing more on its internal issues, leading to a more pragmatic approach in relations with Türkiye.

The webinar concluded with a Q&A session.