According to the results of an opinion poll, which was commissioned by IKV in association with the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV) thanks to the support of the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB), conducted by the MetroPOLL research company, with 4506 people in 35 provinces, 60 percent of the population supports Turkey's membership to the EU while only 23 percent believes that Turkey's EU membership will come true.

Support for EU membership was highest in southeast Turkey with 66 percent, and lowest in northeast Turkey with 59 percent. Among the respondents, 64 percent of women and 57 percent of men support EU membership. The age group that supports EU membership the most is the 18-24 age group, with a support rate of 66 percent. By education level, with 67 percent and 66 percent respectively, the most support comes from high school graduates and college graduates.

The proportion of those, who believe Turkey will become an EU member, is 23 percent, compared to 30 percent in 2015, 36 percent in 2016 and 31 percent in 2017. The highest level of belief in Turkey’s EU membership was recorded in the southeast with 34 percent, while the lowest level of belief was recorded in the provinces in the west of the country with 19 percent.

IKV Chairman Ayhan Zeytinoğlu made the following comments on the results of the public opinion survey:

"As IKV, we conducted a public opinion survey in association with TEPAV with the support of TOBB. The survey, conducted in 35 provinces with 4506 people, shows that the vast majority of people continue to support EU membership. 60 percent of respondents think that Turkey's EU membership is a good thing. This rate is higher among women than men, among young people than elders, among high school and college graduates than elementary and middle school graduates, and among those living in the southeast than in cities in the northeast. This shows that our people believe in the benefit of EU membership and that despite all the problems and obstacles, they can look at the issue in a rational way. But only 23 percent of respondents believe membership will happen soon. This shows that the obstacles and problems in the EU process have been significantly disappointing, and that the fact that 56 years of relations have still not resulted in membership has undermined the belief in that goal. The support of the Turkish people for EU membership is very important. It is necessary for the EU to respond to this awareness of the Turkish people and to take steps to revive Turkey's accession process. We expect the incoming European Commission and the new president of the European Council and other officials to take initiative on this issue. We call on our government to speed up EU reforms, continue the steps taken in areas such as judicial strategy and visa liberalisation.”

Expectations of economic recovery, freedom and free movement lie behind the support of EU membership

75 percent of those supporting EU membership cite prosperity and economic development while 57 percent cite progress in democracy and human rights, and 45 percent cite the possibility of movement, settlement and education in Europe. 59 percent, who do not support EU membership, cite the belief that it would harm their identity and culture, while 24 percent think the EU has no future and 20 percent believe it will undermine Turkey’s foreign policy. While expectations related to the economic advantages and the freedom environment have taken centre stage in support for EU membership, the main reason for the lack of support is the concern that it would undermine identity and culture.

For 37 percent of the respondents, the EU means prosperity and economic development, while for 21 percent it means democracy and freedom, for 12 percent it means decline and regression, and for 12 percent it means free movement and the removal of borders.

For 49 percent of those who support Turkey's EU membership, the EU means prosperity and economic development, while for just 2 percent it means decline and regression. For 31 per cent of those, who do not support Turkey's EU membership, the EU stands for decline and regression, with only 16 percent expressing prosperity and economic development. This profound difference in the view of those who support and do not support EU membership can also be interpreted as an indication of social polarisation and worldview differences.

Majority of the people view prejudice as the most important obstacle to EU membership

78 percent of respondents consider the most important obstacle to Turkey's EU membership to be prejudice arising from cultural and religious differences. This is followed by Turkey's economic development with 29 percent and problems in democracy and human rights with 28 percent. It is understood that there is a general belief that Turkey is being approached with prejudice.

The most important topic on the agenda of Turkey-EU relations is the refugee crisis

According to the survey, the most important issue on the agenda of Turkey-EU relations is the refugee crisis for 38 percent of respondents, accession negotiations for 27 percent, visa liberalisation for 17 percent and the Customs Union between for 13 percent. 64 percent of the respondents think that modernising the Turkey-EU Customs Union would be beneficial for both sides.

Majority of people think that Turkey is ready for EU membership

60 percent of respondents think that Turkey has the administrative and institutional capacity and human resources required for EU membership. 57 percent believe that Turkey has fulfilled its obligations to become an EU member.

Click here to view the study “Turkish Public Opinion Survey on Support for EU Membership and Perception on Europe 2019 (In Turkish)” based on the survey conducted by MetroPOLL commissioned with the support of TOBB by IKV and TEPAV.