The IKV in collaboration with Realta Research Company conducted a survey regarding EU perception and support for EU membership in Turkish public opinion. Such surveys have also been conducted in 2015 and 2016 owing to the increasing importance of public opinion on Turkey and EU relations.

The survey has been conducted on 18-19 November in 18 provinces of Turkey including Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Manisa, Eskisehir, Bursa, Trabzon, Adana, Mersin, Diyarbakir, Gaziantep, Amasya, Sakarya, Malatya, Agri, Aydin, Batman and Samsun. Participants were selected according to a random selection process and numbered 1311 respondents in total. Gender and regional quotas have been implemented in line with the principle of proportional representation. Face-to-face interviews have been conducted with the participants according to quantitative research methods. Margin of error is estimated at +/-2.5 per cent.

46.2 % of the participants were female while 53.8 % were male. According to educational attainment, 43.7 % of the respondents were high school graduates, while 25,8 % graduated from primary school and 13.6 % graduated from university.

Regarding occupational status, respondents belonged to the following professions: private sector, house maker, unemployed, craftsmen, retired, blue-collar worker, student, self-employed, public servant, farmer, and merchant.

94.2 % of the respondents said that they have heard of the EU before. This percentage is highest in the Marmara region with 96,4 % and lowest in South-eastern Anatolia with 87.2 %. 1.,1 % of the respondents declared that their knowledge of the EU is extensive while the majority (81 %) denoted their level of knowledge as “some”.

Regarding sources of information on the EU, visual and print media ranks in the first place with 89.3 %, while internet ranks as the second (47.2 %), and family and friends rank as the third (32.4 %) information source.

One of the most critical questions in the survey was the one about support for EU membership. Respondents were asked whether they support Turkey’s EU membership goal. A majority, i.e. 78.9 % responded that they did support Turkey’s EU membership. Only 21.1 % opposed it. The level of support had been 61.8 % in 2015 and 75.5 % in 2016. The continuation of a high level of support for Turkey’s EU membership despite all the odds is remarkable. We think that it is a message to decision-makers in Turkey and the EU that they should continue to work towards the goal of membership.

Respondents were also asked whether they think, i.e. believe that Turkey will become a member of the EU in the near future. Only 31.2 % believe that Turkey will become a Member State in the near future while 68.8 % is of the opposite opinion. The ratio of those who believed that Turkey’s EU membership would happen in the near future was 30.1 % in 2015 and 35.6 % in 2016. Belief that membership is going to happen in the near future is highest in South-eastern Anatolia with 56.2 % followed by the Aegean region with 45.2 %. It is the lowest in Eastern Anatolia with 25.5 % and Central Anatolia with 26.1 %. In terms of gender, it may be concluded that women are more sceptical than men regarding the possibility of membership in the near future. While 72.8 % of the female respondents expressed that they did not believe that membership is going to take place in the near future, 58.7 % of the male respondents adhered to this opinion.

In terms of level of education, university graduates are more pessimistic with 77.4 % declaring that they did not believe that membership is going to take place in the near future.

The low level of belief in EU membership may be evaluated as a result of years of problems and delays in Turkey’s EU journey and the current problematic state of relations.  A general loss of hope and feeling of disappointment may be discerned.

Respondents were also asked about the reasons for supporting/not supporting EU membership.

Concerning reasons for supporting EU membership, welfare and level of economic development (48.3 %), progress in democracy and human rights (38,1%) and right of free movement, settlement and education (34.5 %) in the EU are calculated as the top three reasons. Increase in prestige of the country or contribution to level of education and culture are supported by a smaller percentage of the respondents. These results reveal that Turkish people continue to support the EU membership goal due to an expectation about better economic opportunities, developed democracy, increased rights and freedoms.

Regarding the reasons for not supporting membership, 25.2 % noted that they were concerned about weakening of national culture and identity, 24.6 % noted their perception that the EU does not have a future, 23.5 % that the EU implementing double standards towards Turkey and 17.2% were concerned about loss of sovereignty and independence. These results reveal that those against Turkey’s EU membership harbour a negative image about the probable effects of membership and are extremely concerned about preservation of culture and identity.

 Regarding a question about the most important obstacles in front of Turkey’s EU membership, nearly half (46.6 %) of the respondents attributed the main reason to economic problems, 44.3 % noted double standards policy as the main obstacle, 25.3 % as the perceptions and prejudices among the EU public regarding Turkey, and 23.6 % as religious and cultural differences. The Cyprus question which is the main reason for the suspension of several chapters in the accession talks, was cited only by 4.3 % of the respondents as the main obstacle.  It should also be noted that cultural and religious differences was cited as the main obstacle by a majority of the respondents in 2016 while it came as the third this year. This also conveys that economic and policy concerns regarding just treatment of Turkey were evaluated as more significant causes blocking progress towards membership.

Regarding the answer to the question about the meaning of the EU, 41.4 % of the respondents declared that the EU meant welfare and high level of economic development, while 30.8 % of the respondents chose “democracy and freedom”, 26.5 % free movement and abolition of borders, and 26.2 % culture and civilisation. It may be evaluated that Turks generally view the EU as an area of prosperity, democracy and freedom and attribute importance to the right of free movement.

Respondents were also asked questions about Turkey’s economic partners and political allies. Regarding a question about the leading economic partner for Turkey, EU ranked the first with 27.8 %, Russia and Central Asian Republics ranked as the 2nd with 19.3 %, developing countries such as China and India ranked as the third with 18.9 % followed by Middle Eastern countries with 18.6 %. The picture is slightly different when respondents were asked to name Turkey’s leading political partner (ally). Here the EU loses its first place to Russia and Central Asian Republics. While the EU is evaluated as Turkey’s leading political partner by 24.1 %, Russia and Central Asian Republics rank as the first with 24.9 %. Undoubtedly, the recent rapprochement with Russia over the Syrian issue and the spats with EU Member States were responsible for this change in perception. Middle Eastern countries ranked in the third place with 23.6 %, and the USA in the fourth place with 14.3 %.

Lastly, respondents were asked to name the issue that they view as the most important one in Turkey and EU relations at the moment. Visa liberalisation was the issue that was regarded as the most important by 32.8 % of the respondents, followed by the customs union by 31.3 %, and refugee crisis by 27.9 %.  Turkey’s accession negotiations was regarded as the most important issue only by 6.1 % owing to the recent stalemate in the negotiations while a new sort of partnership which is a model proposed by several EU politicians and officials recently, is regarded as the most important issue only by 1.4 %.

In a nutshell, Turks continue to support Turkey’s EU membership despite all the odds and problems in the process. However, the belief that membership will actually take place in the near future is declining.

The EU in general means welfare, democracy, freedom and right of movement for a majority of Turks. These are exactly the same reasons why we continue to support the EU. The EU membership goal corresponds to the Turkish people’s search for “work, bread, and freedom.

All in all, the results reveal that EU membership is not an abandoned goal for Turkey. On the contrary,  the EU anchor and goal of accession maintains its relevance and actuality despite all the hurdles and difficulties experienced to this day.