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8 Mayıs 2017

THE BEGINNING OF A NEW ERA FOR FRANCE AND THE EU WITH MACRON

Emmanuel Macron won 66.1% of the votes on the French presidential election on May 7, compared with 33.9% for right- wing populist Marine Le Pen. 39-year-old Macron is the youngest head of state in the history of the French Republic leaving behind Napoleon III who took the power as president at the age of 40 in 1848.

Le Pen’s crushing defeat against Macron in the presidential elections was greeted with enthusiasm by EU leaders. The President of the European Parliament, Antonio Tajani, has said that Macron’s victory signals the death of populism and vowed that EU is set to rise again. And Mr. Tajani added: “Where there is proper politics, populism loses”.

One week after the resounding victory at the polls, Emmanuel Macron is inaugurated Sunday, May 14, as France's 25th president at the Elysée palace in Paris. The 8th president of France's Fifth Republic, which was created in 1958, said his presidency would “give the French back the confidence to believe in themselves”. In his inauguration speech, Macron also vowed he would do everything that is necessary to fight terrorism and authoritarianism and to resolve the world's migration crisis.

“The division and fractures in our society must be overcome. I know that French expect much from me.” Macron declared.  “The world and Europe need more than ever France, and a strong France, which speaks out loudly for freedom and solidarity."

Delicate Strategy before Legislative Elections

Macron’s second round victory over Le Pen was comfortable not because his program was supported by 66% of the voters but thanks to the “republican barrage” against Eurosceptic Le Pen. Almost half of 47 million French voters chose candidates with views opposed to Macron’s in the first round and Macron had only 24% of the votes. Accordingly, Macron has to perform delicate balancing acts to win sufficient backers in the French parliamentary elections in June.

The balanced government appointments are a part of the strategy of Macron who needs some kind of delicate political compromise with established centrist and left-wing parties. This balancing may help the new president with no established party to perform ahead of the mid-June legislative elections.  However, according to Ipsos/ Sopra-Steria survey results, 61% of French do not want Macron to have the majority in the parliamentary.

In a possible defeat, Macron will have to govern the country with a different majority than his own party, which may mean that Macron will never be able to gain full control of the country. According to experts, the most probable outcome is a legislature in which a large, centrist “presidential” bloc supports Macron, but where he could conceivably be held hostage by anti-Macron forces that are likely to form a vocal and disruptive phalanx questioning his legitimacy to govern.