IKV Chairman Ayhan Zeytinoğlu reacted to the latest report regarding the future of the EU. Indeed, Chairman of Turkey’s EU Expert IKV Ayhan Zeytinoğlu reacted to the scenarios which are putting on the table the new dimensions in which the EU may evolve following Brexit:

In his “State of the Union” speech at the European Parliament, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker revealed extensive information with respect to the new “White Paper” published by the Commission on the EU’s future following Brexit and underscored the possible 5 scenarios as such.

IKV Chairman Ayhan Zeytinoğlu assessed as follows these respective scenarios:

“The 60th Anniversary of the Treaty of Rome which founded the European Economic Community (EEC) will be celebrated on 25 March 2017. However, it is noteworthy to say that this celebration will be performed in a rather sour atmosphere. Indeed, one should recollect that the British people had voted last June in favour of leaving the EU. As such, many are expecting the British government to invoke Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon in the upcoming days which represents the legal basis in order for a member state to proceed with the withdrawal from the Union. This would effectively mean that the EU will continue its own path with 27 member states. Along with the Brexit process, it is of utmost importance to highlight the challenge which growing far right and populist movements from the Netherlands to France and countries such as Poland and Hungary breaking away from EU values represent for the future of the EU”.

“The EU has advanced rapidly in a very short amount of time. This has led to problems regarding absorption and alignment”:

Indicating that the EU is at a very important crossroads with respect to its own future, IKV Chairman Zeytinoğlu stressed that the report which had been prepared by the Commission would be first and foremost evaluated by the leaders of all member states which would later constitute a basis for the beginning of a period of discussion regarding the future of the EU. Furthermore, Zeytinoğlu followed his words by highlighting that this period of transformation for the EU is also of critical concern for a candidate country such as Turkey:

“In his speech at the European Parliament, European Commission President Juncker revealed the latest White Paper regarding the Future of the EU and underscored 5 different scenarios which may materialise in the EU until 2025. The scenarios are as follows:

Scenario 1: Carrying on,

Scenario 2: Nothing but the Single Market,

Scenario 3: Those who want to do more,

Scenario 4: Doing less more efficiently,

Scenario 5: Doing much more together.

Scenarios 1, 2 and 5 do not seem to be possible at the moment. It is not possible for the EU to continue without any change and compliance, likewise it is not possible to come down to the internal market by throwing away every important achievements until today. Similarly, when we consider increasing scepticism about EU policies, economic problems and nationalist reactions in this period of mounting sovereigntist tendencies, it can’t be said that it is probable for the EU to carry assertively their deep integration into new targets. In this case, the 3rd and 4th scenarios come to the forefront. In other words, it is important that the EU continues to pursue further integration not with all its Member States but with a group of willing countries, towards a common defence and fiscal policy, or, as in the 4th scenario, the EU aims to be more effective in selected policy areas while doing less or stops acting in some policies. My guess is that there will be a multi-layered European model formed from a more tightly integrated inner ring and a looser outer ring.”

“Let’s make necessary preparations to take part in the emerging new Europe”

IKV Chairman Zeytinoğlu stated that the EU process has made a very rapid breakthrough since the Maastricht Treaty in 1993 and their gains that can be summarised today as peace, security and prosperity are not appreciated enough by new generations who have never experienced war and poverty.

“The EU has achieved a very rapid integration process in a short span of 25 years. Nevertheless trying to realise such ambitious goals in such a short time, has led to problems of digestion and compliance. Nowadays, nationalist and conservative reactions threaten EU achievements. As a candidate country, Turkey should follow closely the developments in the EU. Turkey's EU Expert IKV closely follows this process, fulfils its mission of disclosure by publishing its analyses and appreciations. As IKV, we think that the EU will evolve into a two-layered structure. In this case, Turkey will need to look at its strategies to find a place in this renewed EU. When this multi-layered institutional structure of the EU emerges clearly, Turkey will also have to take steps to take part in this structure. Therefore, let's not get caught up in the illusion that relations with the EU are ending or that the goal of membership is disappearing. Let's not be despairing about the developments in the EU. As we have done so far, let's continue to improve compliance process with the EU with patience and determination. Let’s make necessary preparations to take part in the emerging new Europe.”