Britain held a referendum regarding its status as an EU Member State on 23 June 2016. The referendum saw the victory of the “Leave” campaign. In the referendum, the turnout reached 72.2% of the electorate with approximately 30 million people casting their vote. 52% of the electorate voted in favour of leaving the EU. Nonetheless, one can say that the referendum results show a discrepancy as regards to the regions and the profile of the British electorate. As means of an example, the majority of the voters in the London Region and Scotland voted in favour of remaining in the EU and, similarly, young and better educated voters also showed a stronger tendency to remain within the EU. The first political result of the referendum was the announcement by Prime Minister David Cameron of his resignation and the decision to leave to his successor the task of leading Britain in its process of leaving the EU.

How will Britain’s process of withdrawal from the EU work?

In the upcoming months, it is expected that,

- the British Parliament will take a decision approving formally the results of the referendum;

- In light of this decision, the British Government will issue a formal application to leave the EU;

- A new treaty including the conditions of withdrawal will be signed between Britain and the EU.

Britain will negotiate a new treaty with the EU which would determine Britain’s relationship with the EU and its new status in that respect. This new agreement will help in defining Britain’s relationship with the EU. One should also remind that Britain also benefited from opt-outs whilst it was a member of the EU as it was neither a member of the Eurozone nor the Schengen area.

What type of model could be foreseen?

Within that framework, this new model would include close economic and trade relations with the EU. For example, Britain’s integration in the European Economic Area (EEA) in order to facilitate its access to the EU internal market is an important option. A formula with Britain’s inclusion simultaneously in the trade agreements concluded by the EU and the optional adherence to the EU’s regulations could also constitute a new model for some EU Member States and candidate countries.

Whilst Britain is re-negotiating its relations with the EU, the status of EU internal migrants currently living in Britain is also a source of concern. It can be foreseen that those currently living in Britain will remain in the country but that Britain may determine new regulations with respect to EU and non-EU migrants, making it harder for them to come over.

How will Turkey be affected by the results of the Brexit referendum?

Taking a look at the results from Turkey’s perspective, one can see that these results are of significant importance for two reasons:

First of all, the results of the Brexit referendum constitute an event which will shape the EU’s future direction. Indeed, the Union will have to determine a new institutional framework including different models with respect to its integration structure. Furthermore, one can see that a multi-speed Europe is emerging step by step. In that context, the direction, which will be chosen by the EU, is of critical importance as regards to Turkey’s EU membership objective.

Secondly, Britain’s new relationship with the EU will constitute a new model which will have to be explored thoroughly by Turkey. It is of utmost importance to take into consideration a new model which would include Turkey’s participation in certain policy areas and enable its access to the EU internal market by keeping in mind the objective of full integration of Turkey into the EU.

The results of the Brexit referendum do not mean the end of the EU but rather a new beginning for the EU.