The new publication entitled “Towards 2020: Kyoto-Type Climate Change Negotiations- EU’s Capability and Turkey’s Position” (in Turkish) written by İKV Junior Researcher, İlge Kıvılcım (IKV Publication No: 268) provides a general view of the framework of the ongoing negotiating process on climate change.  This publication aims to analyzed Turkey and the European Union’s position within the climate change negotiations.

As it is known, research in the area of climate change policies has become an important topic both in the political and economic policy agendas for more than thirty years. This is mainly due to the increasing number of observations made on climate change which gives a collective and clear picture of the global warming. Referring to his speech delivered at the U.S Senate in 1988, the former climate scientist of NASA, James Hansen indicated that “climate change is real and now happening despite the opposed visions”. These conclusions were drawn from the Fifth of IPCC Assessment Report (AR5-http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm) which was approved on the 27th September 2013. This report reveals that 95 percent of the climate change is human caused related.

In order to encourage countries to strengthen their efforts for a sustainable future, the 15th Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 15) was organized in 2009. In a way this conference was seen as the last opportunity to reach an internationally binding agreement on climate change.  However this conference revealed to be a disappointment since it resulted with “weak” commitments that were not legally binding. The hope to reach an agreement was hence officially postponed for the upcoming conference. On the other hand, although the European Union has been characterized as a leader in international climate policy-making, it has been criticized widely for presenting a “disappointing leadership” in global negotiations. The fact that the European Union could not play such an effective role during these negotiations is mainly due to the divergence of Member States’ interest and to the international pressures deriving from the international environment of the COP 15. Therefore although the European Union had targeted “ambitious goals”, it has reached “low outcomes” at this conference. The European Union however started to set out a more pragmatic approach with less ambitious goals, especially in the negotiations held in 2010 in Cancun (COP 16).

The negotiations will continue by 2015 under the auspices of UN meetings. At the high level meeting in Doha Conference held in 2012 (COP 18), the only tangible conclusion drawn was the decision to extend the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol till 2020. Drawing upon the opinions collected by the Parties by the end of 2014, the UN Secretary will present a draft document to re-discuss the issue between the Parties which is expected in May 2015. Considering these key dates, it is essential that between now and 2015, a roadmap for the near future is drawn. But there is the risk that in the meantime, the Parties will “re-new” their low targets for the second commitment period of Kyoto Protocol during the conference which will be held in Lima in 2014 (COP 20). Furthermore, there are two important issues that should be agreed on before 2015: “A draft document” and “financial aid” (loss and damage mechanism) for developing and poor countries.

The European Union will continue to support the cutting of emissions and to take actions to limit the impacts of climate change at least by 2020. Thus, reaching an agreement on climate change will be on the top of the European agenda.

Turkey is listed among the vulnerable country categories according to scientific indicators. The case of shifts in the global temperature of up-to 2 Celcius which is expected in the Mediterranean Basin of Turkey shows the extent to which new tools and strategies adopted against the impacts of climate change need to be planned in depth. Furthermore, Turkey as a candidate country to the European Union should have ambitious and decisive targets for the near-future. More specifically, Turkey’s position on emission targets for the Kyoto Protocol remains still uncertain. At first stage, the current climate change visions of Turkey should be built on the reduction of energy consumption, on energy efficiency by encouraging investment for using renewable technologies and by promoting specific carbon-cut targets by 2020.

Towards 2020: Kyoto-Type Climate Change Negotiations - EU’s Capability and Turkey’s Position” (in Turkish)

Author: İlge Kıvılcım, IKV Junior Researcher

IKV Publication No: 268