Turkey’s Elections: 24 June and Beyond

Turkey had an exciting, highly tense and quite unique election period from the earlier ones. The June 24 election which is the first presidential election that took place after the constitutional referendum held on 16 April 2017 was critical in terms of the future of the country. This election, which will determine the fate of democracy in Turkey according to some, has revealed remarkable results in different aspects.

First of all, the June 24 election has been a scene for a "struggle of alliances". The failure to remove the 10 percent threshold introduced in 1983 following the 12 September Coup D'état, despite the passing of its 35^th anniversary, led to the possibility that some parties suspected of exceeding 10 percent would be under the threshold. In order to secure majority in the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM), Justice and Development Party (AKP), the winner party in all elections since 2002, has established the People’s Alliance together with Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Grand Unity Party (BBP). On the other side, opposition parties led by the Republican People's Party (CHP) have taken action and formed the Nation Alliance. These alliances were managed to be formed despite the fact that there was extremely little time for campaigning and election preparations.

Another important question was that who would be the candidates that were going to be competing against the candidate of People’s Alliance, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. In particular, who will be the candidate of the main opposition party and the possible joint candidate was the main debate. Finally a name has been decided upon who was also a candidate for party presidency against Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Despite his reputation, it was wondering how Muharrem İnce, the CHP's presidential candidate, would perform against Erdoğan. The success of İnce, who made 107 rallies until June 24 and succeeded in attracting millions to Izmir, Ankara and Istanbul rallies, was approved by both the ruling and opposition circles. Indeed, İnce was not defeated by the experienced and charismatic leader Erdoğan, and succeeded in becoming an interpreter of the feelings of millions with a style reminiscent of Erdoğan's political style. The fact that CHP’s leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu nominated a name that competed with him in the party was a sign of democratic maturity which is not frequently seen in our politics.

Perhaps in the first place, this fact should be emphasised; the elections were held under the state of emergency conditions, and institutions such as the EU and Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe expressed their criticism in this regard before the election period. The facts that during the election campaigns, the ruling party had a broader space on the media, for example, speeches made by President Erdoğan and Prime Minister Yıldırım were broadcasted live by cutting off programs, while on the other had the rallies of opposition candidates had a restricted place. A campaign against opposition parties of many media organizations which are questioning in terms of their objectivity, not organising meetings as in many democratic countries and in the old days of Turkey which bring candidates to discuss before the elections. Also, the fact that HDP candidate ran his election campaign under custody even though there was no judgement, raised questions.

Despite all these handicaps, we had a colourful election period. The active use of social media by candidates that were excluded from the mainstream media and the good performance of candidates has led to the expectation that the results of the elections could also end in unpredictable directions. Especially while the CHP electorates were expecting for the presidential elections to move into the second round and Muharrem İnce to press in upon 35-40 percent of the votes, it was a topic of curiosity whether if AKP would lose its votes for some extent in the parliamentary elections, if the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) could manage to surpass 10 percent threshold or if some of the AKP’s votes could be directed at Saadet Partisi and what was the state of the other parties’ potential.

 

Election Results

Shortly after 17:00 pm, at the end of the voting period in the evening of June 24, the first results of the elections began to arrive. The results of the elections were reported only by the Anatolian Agency (AA), and the lack of election news from other news agencies was again a controversial issue due to some of the accusations over AA. This situation was an indication for the need for alternative news sources and a pluralistic media. The fact that the alternative source of news, Fair Election Platform, was not accessible in the late hours of the night due to technical problems and also the first results announced by the AA underwent a change as the number of ballot boxes opened, increased speculation on the results.

Some of the news that was produced via social media also raised tension. The fact that the CHP candidate İnce did not make any further explanation after the statement he made during the early hours of the night led to some comments in the form of, "Is he left under pressure?” The proclamation of President Candidate İnce's "The man won" message to the FOX presenter, İsmail Küçükkaya, via WhatsApp and the fact that İnce did not deliver a final statement addressing the public also led to disappointment among the electorate. CHP Deputy Chairman Bülent Tezcan's statement that the elections were going to move on the second round caused confusion, and stirred up excitement for the mass of voters, who were already anticipating cheating in the elections.

The actual results became apparent as the number of ballots that were opened at the end of the hectic night was gradually completed and the election results posted by AA overlapped with the results of the Fair Election Platform. The high participation rate in elections and the fact that many volunteers applied to be election observers, the efforts of the NGOs' such as “Vote and Beyond”, numerous electorates’ will to witness the process by going to the polls, were undoubtedly remarkable. And this condition revealed that people were conscious of democracy and that elections were still an important means of political participation.

Some general figures for the June 24 elections were:

The Number of Electorates: 59.367.469

The Number of People Who Voted: 51.189.698

The Number of Ballot Boxes: 188.008

The Number of Prison Ballot Box: 493

The Number of Prison Electorates: 84.924

The Number of Customs Ballot Boxes: 81

The Number of Abroad Voters: 3.044.837

Total Voting in Abroad: 1.525.666

Regarding the voting rates, it was President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who won the presidential election, by exceeding the 50 percent threshold with the 52.59 percent of votes. Muharrem İnce, who came in second by receiving 30.64 percent of the votes and successfully surpassed his party’s votes, was the other candidate who became successful despite the limited campaigning opportunities. Rest of the candidates, Selahattin Demirtaş received 8.40 percent, Meral Akşener received 7.29 percent, Temel Karamollaoğlu received 0.89 percent and Doğu Perinçek received 0,20 percent of the votes. In the 2014 presidential elections, Erdoğan had received 51.79 percent of the votes, whereas the joint candidate of CHP and MHP, Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu had received 38.44 percent and Selahattin Demirtaş received 9.76 percent of the votes.

When we look at the distribution of votes in terms of the presidential election, Erdoğan has reached the highest rates of the vote in the North and Central Anatolian cities mostly besides the big cities like Istanbul and Ankara, while İnce appears to have the best results in the west and coastline and Demirtaş has the best results in the southeast. When we look at the list of cities where the initial four candidates have achieved the best results, it turns out:

- Cities where Recep Tayyip Erdoğan received the highest rate of votes: Bayburt, Gümüşhane, Rize, Çankırı, Aksaray

- Cities where Muharrem İnce received the highest rate of votes: Kırklareli, Tunceli, Edirne, İzmir, Muğla

- Cities where Meral Akşener received the highest rate of votes: Burdur, Isparta, Denizli, Antalya, Bilecik

- Cities where Selahattin Demirtaş received the highest rate of votes: Şırnak, Hakkâri, Diyarbakır, Batman, Ağrı

When we look at the results of the parliamentary elections, it is possible to see that the AKP came first with 41.85 percent, but when compared to the 49.5 percent of votes received by the AKP in November 1, 2015 elections; Votes that were received by AKP has decreased slightly.

With the MHP’s 10.90 percent votes share, the People’s Alliance have taken 52.75 percent of the total casted votes. This vote share corresponds to 344 seats in the TBMM, which in turn translates that the AKP and the MHP have exceeded 301 seats, a gain of the absolute majority of the 600 seat parliament.  In addition to this, the CHP won 146 seats with 22.48 percent of the votes, the Good Party (İYİP) won 43 seats with 9.89 percent of the votes, and the HDP won 67 seats with 11.7 percent of the votes. Compared to the 1 November 2015 elections, it is possible to see that there is a slight decrease in the votes of the CHP, as well as the AKP. Accordingly, the CHP, which received 25.3 percent of the votes on November 2015 elections, was able to get 22.48 percent of the votes this time. On the other hand, the MHP with 10.90 percent of the votes have achieved a very similar result to the 2015 election, where it received 11.90 percent. The HDP increased its votes to 11.70 percent from the 10.80 comparing to the November 2015 election.

While the expectations of the MHP to lose votes are not realised, it seems that the HDP has also increased its vote rate slightly by taking few votes from the CHP. While the CHP candidate Ince created a new wave of hope by getting a result that was well above his party's vote share, he also undoubtedly brought back the leadership debate within the party. Besides the successful examples of good politics such as the CHP’s Leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s nomination of Ince for presidential candidacy and the Justice Walk (Adalet Yürüyüşü), it is crucial to remind that in the West European democracies, the resignation of the leader of the party that lost the election paves the way for the renewal of politics. This rule not only applies to the main opposition party, the CHP, but also to the other parties. The final results of the June 24 elections will be announced by the Supreme Election Board on the 5^th of July.

In the last analysis, taking into account that Turkey is going through a difficult period both in terms of regional balances, security and also the economy, it is clear that the new government to be established should prioritise and accelerate the necessary reforms. Before the elections, all the candidates made statements in the direction of the removal of the state of emergency. This should be one of the first steps taken by the newly elected President Erdoğan and the new Parliament. The election of a highly representative assembly, which reflects the different colours of the political spectrum, brought hopes and wishes that the assembly will be more effective in terms of checks and balances. According to the unofficial results, in the 600 seat parliament the number of female deputies is only 91. Although there is an increase in the number of female parliamentarians compared with the previous parliament, 74, the rate of women will still be insufficient in the new parliament.

International Reactions

Both the election process and the election results were in the focus of the world press. In the election evaluations of the international community, a surprise was not expected. There was an expectation toward a possible victory of President Erdoğan and the AKP.  In addition, the mainstream international media emphasised that the president would be equipped with strong powers in the new executive order to be formed after the June 24 elections and underlined that a transition to a new administrative system centred on Erdoğan is going to take place. It was also pointed out that the elections were competitive, but that the election campaigns did not take place in a fair and equal manner.

There was also many congratulation calls and messages from world leaders to President Erdoğan. Besides Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who sought first among the EU leaders to congratulate Erdoğan, UK Prime Minister Theresa May and German Prime Minister Angela Merkel also congratulated the president by phone. Apart from this, Russian President Vladimir Putin, German President Walter Steinmeier, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, Palestinian leader Mahmut Abbas, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, President of the Bosnia and Herzegovina as the Bosniak member Bakir Izetbegovic, President of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and many leaders of other countries such as Serbia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Somalia and Sudan have sent their messages of congratulations.

In the joint statement by the Vice-President of the European Commission and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini and the European Commissioner for European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations Johannes Hahn, the high rate of participation in the elections and the spread of the contending candidates and parties to a broad spectrum was praised as the Turkish people's commitment to democratic processes, fundamental freedoms and rule of law. While it was stated that the voters had genuine choice, it was also underlined that the campaigning conditions were not equal and freedom of expression including in media and freedom to assembly were restricted under the state of emergency. In the statement, it was warned that the new presidential system, which will be transitioned through the elections, will have extensive outcomes for Turkish democracy in terms of checks and balances and it would be beneficial to urgently address the certain shortcomings regarding the rule of law and fundamental rights, as Venice Commission of the Council of Europe states. The statement put forward the EU’s commitment to cooperate with Turkey in the new era, demonstrated by “we will work together with the President and the Parliament to address together the many challenges ahead of us” remark. In this statement also, the issues that needs to be resolved from the stand point of the EU as immediate as possible were brought into the forefront, as they have been set forth in most of the past statements, reports and decisions.

President of the European Council Donald Tusk and President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker also delivered a celebration message to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who won the June 24 elections. In the letter dated 26 June 2018, while Tusk and Juncker congratulated the re-elected President Erdoğan, it was remarked that Turkey is a candidate country and is a key partner for the EU. Moreover, it was emphasised that they will continue to work closely with Turkey in the areas of common interest such as security, migration and energy.

The Next Day: After 24 June

The government, which will be formed within the framework of Presidency executive system following the elections, needs to address issues such as the rule of law, fundamental rights, checks and balances without fail and should deliver solution urgently. This is not only the expectation of the EU and some other international organisations, but also the expectation of the majority of Turkish people. The new government, by lifting the state of emergence, accelerating reforms and putting the economy on track, needs to renew confidence both internally and externally.

Considering that there is a transition to a strong execution, in which the prime ministerial institution has been removed, ministers are going to be assigned outside of the Assembly by the President, the structure of the system and how it will function is an issue of concern. According to the plan President Erdoğan has announced before elections, the structure of the ministries would also be changed. According to the new plan, the number of the ministries are reduced from 21 to 16 and ministries of Foreign Affairs, Interior, Justice, Environment and Urban Planning, Energy and Natural Resources, Youth and Sports, Culture and Tourism, National Education, National Defence and Health stays the same. The projected changes are as follows:

- Ministry of EU Affairs will be integrated into Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

- Ministry of Family and Social Policy and Ministry of Labour and Social Security will be merged and will be referred as Ministry of Labour, Social Services and Family.

- Ministry of Science, Industry and Technology and Ministry of Development will be merged and will be referred as Ministry of Industry and Development.

- Ministry of Economy and Ministry of Customs and Trade will be merged and will be referred as Ministry of Trade.

- Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock and the Ministry of Forestry and Water Resources will also be merged and will be referred as Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.

-Ministry of Finance will be renamed as Ministry of Treasury and Finance.

- Ministry of Transport, Maritime Affairs and Communication will be renamed as Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure.

There will also be various committees engaged directly to the President in addition to the Ministries in the new system. How will these committees, which are devoted to various themes such as Science, Technology and Innovation Policies, Social Policies, Local Administration Policies, Security and Foreign Policies, Law Policies, Culture and Art Policies, Health and Food Policies, Economy Policies and Education Policies would function, will be clear in practice.

The integration of Ministry of EU Affairs into Ministry of Foreign Affairs is a crucial step in terms of our relations with the EU and the negotiation process. Questions such as whether if Ministry of EU Affairs will preserve its autonomy and integrity, if the Minister of Foreign Affairs or some other person will become Chief Negotiator remains to be answered in this arrangement. We are hoping that the removal of the Ministry of EU Affairs will not mean Turkey will set EU process aside and will transition to a formula falling short of membership. We wish that the office and the organisation which will be executing the EU process will be strong, well-equipped and will have the comprehension that is necessary to revive Turkey’s EU process.

Assoc. Prof. Çiğdem Nas, IKV Secretary General